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INDEPENDENT, SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
ON POLITICS AND SOCIETY

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From the CPS Blog

What have we learned from the American National Election Studies (ANES)?

The ANES has surveyed Americans before and after every U.S. presidential election since 1948, providing us with rich insights into why and how Americans vote. In recognition of the ANES’s 75th anniversary, CPS reached out to scholars to ask what we know about American politics, voters and voting behaviors because of the ANES. Read what they told us on the CPS blog.

Is Partisan Hostility Damaging American Democracy?

A new book by some of the foremost scholars of polarization amasses empirical evidence of the consequences of political hostility in recent years, and offers a theory of when it affects political beliefs and behaviors. More from the CPS blog.

Events

This year’s CPS Wednesday seminar series has an exciting lineup of speakers.

Insights Talk: Partisan Hostility and American Democracy

For generations, experts argued that American politics needed cohesive parties to function effectively. Now many fear that strong partisan views, particularly hostility to the opposing party, are damaging democracy. In this Insights Talk, John Barry Ryan and Yanna Krupnikov address this concern with a nuanced evaluation of when and how partisan animosity matters in today’s highly charged, dynamic political environment, drawing on panel data from some of the most tumultuous years in recent American history, 2019 through 2021.

Oct. 24, 2024, at noon, at ISR Thompson 1430.

Miller-Converse Lecture 2025

The 2025 Miller-Converse Lecture will be held on March 20, 2025 at 4 p.m. The speaker will be Tali Mendelberg.
ISR Thompson 1430

The Miller-Converse Lecture

CPS News

Vaccine uptake influenced by politics, socioeconomics

COVID vaccinePosted Oct. 10, 2024. 

New research sheds light on the rationales and information environments for early, late, and nonadopters of the COVID-19 vaccine– and suggests online influencers and celebrities might play an important role in encouraging vaccine uptake. CPS’s Ceren Budak, Michael Traugott, and Josh Pasek investigated with colleagues at Georgetown. More from Michigan News.

 

Mozambique ruling party likely to win elections amid allegations of irregularities

Posted Oct. 10, 2024. 

Mozambique is counting votes amid allegations of irregularities in this week’s presidential election. Anne Pitcher of CPS shared insights on registration rigging that took place prior to the election. More from the Guardian.

 

Krupnikov and Ryan: Undecided voters unable to pick a candidate whose views align

Yanna KrupnikovPosted Oct. 10, 24. 

Undecided voters aren’t struggling to choose between options that appear equally good. CPS affiliates Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan, experts on partisanship and the politically disengaged, say they’re struggling to select a candidate whose policies align with their beliefs . More from Michigan News.

 

$3M Minerva Project to Investigate the Role of Social Cohesion in Weathering Crises in the Indo-Pacific

HickenPosted Sept. 24, 2024. 

The Minerva Research Initiative, a university-based social science research initiative sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense, has awarded more than $3 million in funding for a research project led by CPS’s Allen Hicken. The four-year project, “Cohesion under Crisis: Concepts, Measures, Implications,” will investigate the role of social cohesion in weathering crisis, focusing on the Indo-Pacific region. More from CPS.

CPS Affiliates to be Honored at APSA 2024

APSAPosted Sept. 3, 2024. 

A host of CPS affiliates will take awards home from the APSA Annual Meeting this week in Philadelphia. CPS Director Ken Kollman will receive the 2024 Eldersveld Career Achievement Award from the Political Organizations and Parties section; awardees also include Charlotte Cavaillé, Megan Stewart, and Hilary Izatt. More from CPS.

Remembering Samuel H. Barnes

Samuel BarnesPosted June 14, 2024. 

Samuel H. Barnes, a leading scholar on voting behavior and political party affiliation in Western democracies and past affiliate of the Center for Political Studies, died on May 21, at 93. More from MLive.

Foreign Affairs Report: America Is Losing the Arab World

Mark TesslerPosted June 11, 2024. 

The Arab Barometer public opinion survey shows Arab public opinion has turned sharply against the United States since October 7. Michael Robbins, Amaney A. Jamal, and Mark Tessler write in Foreign Affairs: “Ultimately, to win the trust of Arab citizens in the Middle East, the United States must show the same care for the suffering of the Palestinians that it does for that of the Israelis.” More in Foreign Affairs.

The Hill Opinion: Biden knows executive order on border will fail. Blame our broken system.

Posted June 11, 2024. 

Biden’s executive order on the border will fail, Kenneth Lowande says in an Opinion out in The Hill. “The purpose of the president going alone on immigration is political; whether it fixes the problem is almost beside the point.” More from the UM Department of Political Science.

CPS launches SUNGEO project to assist in merging data across different scales

Posted May 14, 2024. 

The new Subnational Geospatial Data Archive (SUNGEO) project addresses a common challenge for social researchers: misalignment that arises when data are collected at varying levels of scale. It uses a variety of tools to integrate geospatial data, allowing researchers and analysts to evaluate data relationships from a variety of sources, scales, and geographical contexts. More from ISR.

Michael Traugott Wins Roper’s 2024 Mitofsky Award for Excellence in Public Opinion Research

Michael TraugottPosted May 10, 2024. 

Michael Traugott, Professor Emeritus at the University of Michigan and a Research Professor Emeritus in the Center for Political Studies, has been recognized with the 2024 Warren J. Mitofsky Award for Excellence in Public Opinion Research. More from CPS.

 

More feelings of misinformation, more news avoidance, Ariel Hasell study shows

Ariel HasellPosted April 17, 2024. 

As people have more difficulty distinguishing fact from fiction in the United States, they are more likely to feel news fatigue and avoid news altogether, according to a new study by Ariel Hasell of the Center for Political Studies. More from Michigan News.

 

Celebrating 75 years of the American National Election Studies

The American National Election Studies celebrates its 75th anniversary in 2024 with events at MPSA, APSA, and more.  The Center for Political Studies blog offers chronicles, comments, and reflections on the project. More from CPS.

ANES at 75
Climate change

Featured Project

Climate Change, Demographic Shifts, and Socio-Political Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa

Leveraging the skills of an exceptional interdisciplinary team of University of Michigan’s social, data, and climate scientists, this project will advance the frontiers of usable social-scientific knowledge at the intersection of climate, demography, and socio-political stability as it affects U.S. national security interests. The project will analyze how complex interactions of climate and demographic change affect sociopolitical stability in Africa, assess where and when risks are greatest, and thus respond to two central concerns of the 2022 U.S. National Defense Strategy: climate change and China (PRC). The project will generate actionable research findings on factors that prompt and locations that harbor great risks of political instability and conflict in Africa.

Learn more about the project, funded by the Minerva Research Initiative.

The PIs are Arun Agrawal and Yuri Zhukov.

Partisan Hostility and American Democracy

Featured Publication

Partisan Hostility and American Democracy

For generations, experts argued that American politics needed cohesive parties to function effectively. Now many fear that strong partisan views, particularly hostility to the opposing party, are damaging democracy. Is partisanship as dangerous as we fear it is? To provide an answer, this book offers a nuanced evaluation of when and how partisan animosity matters in today’s highly charged, dynamic political environment, drawing on panel data from some of the most tumultuous years in recent American history, 2019 through 2021. The authors– James N. Druckman, Samara Klar, Yanna Krupnikov, Matthew Levendusky, and John Barry Ryan– show that partisanship powerfully shapes political behaviors, but its effects are conditional, not constant. Instead, it is most powerful when politicians send clear signals and when an issue is unlikely to bring direct personal consequences. In the absence of these conditions, other factors often dominate decision-making. They argue that while partisan hostility has degraded US politics—for example, politicizing previously non-political issues and undermining compromise—it is not in itself an existential threat. As their research shows, the future of American democracy depends on how politicians, more than ordinary voters, behave.

Read more about the book. (University of Chicago Press: June 2024)