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CPS Researchers at MPSA 2023

The following is a schedule of CPS researchers at the 2023 MPSA Conference in Chicago. All times are Central Daylight Time.The Center for Political Studies.

Thursday, April 13, 2023 

Thursday 8:00 to 9:30 am CDT (9:00 to 10:30 am EDT)  

Machine Learning in the Study of Political Communication
Christian Fong Discussant

Angry White Parents: How Anger Mobilizes White Participation in Local School Board Politics 

Group Identities, Anger, and Mobilization
Hilary Jan Izatt, Francy Diaz, and Zoe Walker
Using a survey experiment, we show that White parents participate more in local school boards when they experience anger induced by attention to teaching about white privilege in schools.

Procrastination and Ideology in District Courts
All About Ideology
Ben McGraw and Deborah Beim
Using the Federal Judicial Center’s Six Month List, we identify ideological patterns in delay in district court judges’ behavior

The Origins of Direct Rule: Evidence from the Qing Empire
Historical State Development
We digitize a large-scale historical archive to construct a novel dataset of native chiefdoms to identify how the international price of copper causally motivated rulers to shift from indirect rule to direct rule in Southwest China.
Jun Fang
James Kai-sing Kung, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Thursday 9:45 to 11:15am CDT (10:45am to 12:15pm EDT) 

Narrative as Constraint: The Legacies of Kazakhstan’s January Protests
Midwest Eurasian Political Economy Workshop: Citizen Attitudes and Behavior
Regina Smyth, University of Indiana, Bloomington; Pauline Jones
We explore the role of state narratives on individual attitudes and action, controlling for key individual attributes and contextual factors.

Thursday 11:30am to 1:00pm CDT (12:30 to 2:00pm EDT)

Authors Meet Critics: Seeing Us in Them – Social Divisions and the Politics of Group Empathy
Chair: Nicholas Valentino
This roundtable is in an authors-meet-critics format, reviewing the concept of outgroup empathy introduced in Seeing Us in Them: Social Divisions and the Politics of Group Empathy by Cigdem V. Sirin, Nicholas A. Valentino, and José D. Villalobos.

Motivating Voters to Vote Again: Twitter discourse during the 2019 Istanbul re-run election
Lightning Talk: Democratic Backsliding
Irene Morse
Using Twitter data collected surrounding the 2019 Istanbul mayoral re-run election, this paper addresses the question of how voters mobilize under conditions in which their political efficacy is unclear.

The Social Media Impact of Democratic Backsliding: Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire
Lightning Talk: Democratic Backsliding
Justine Davis and Irene Morse
This paper uses data from Ivorian Facebook groups to examine how citizens react online to clear evidence of democratic backsliding.

Chinese Aid and Corruption in African Local Governments
Foreign Aid in Africa
Sujin Cha
This paper examines the influence of Chinese aid on political corruption perceived by African citizens.

Networks and Agent-Based Models
Fabricio Vasselai, Chair and Discussant

Thursday 1:15 to 2:45pm CDT (2:15 to 3:45pm EDT)

Author Meets Critics: Skin Color, Power, and Politics in America
Chair: Vincent Hutchings
An Author Meets Critics panel discussing Mara Ostfeld and Nicole Yadon’s 2022 book “Skin Color, Power, and Politics in America” (RSF Press)

Thursday 2:15 to 3:45pm CDT (3:15 to 4:45pm EDT) 

Your Past is My Present? Historical Parallels and Public Opinion on Foreign Policy
Midwest Eurasian Political Economy Workshop: War in Ukraine and its Effects
Pauline Jones and Anil Menon
We assess the impact of Zelensky’s use of historical references when speaking to elected representatives in four countries. We expect his rhetorical strategy to increase both empathy and public support for contributing to Ukraine’s war efforts.

Thursday 3 to 4:30 pm CDT (4 to 5:30pm EDT) 

Litigants, Lawyers, and Doctrinal Development
Courts and Other Actors
Deborah Beim, Sepehr Shahshahani (Fordham)
How does creative lawyering affect doctrinal development? We present a formal model about how plaintiffs change their framing of cases depending on their own circumstances and on their expectations of judges’ openness to new arguments.

Bargaining and Strategy in Conflict,
Roya Talibova, discussant

Thursday 4 to 5:20 pm CDT (5 to 6:20pm EDT) 

Developing the Pipeline: How Women’s Organizations Support Women Candidates
In the Junior Americanist Workshop Series Session IV
Sara Morell

Thursday 4:45 to 6:15 pm CDT (5:45 to 7:15 pm EDT) 

Roundtable: Endgame Scenarios for Russia’s War in Ukraine
Pauline Jones, participant
This roundtable of five scholars with deep expertise on Russia and Ukraine will discuss possible endgame scenarios for the conflict, with a particular emphasis on Russian and Ukrainian domestic political realities and constraints.

Authority Migration and Interest Mobilization: Lobbying on Progressive Era Amendments
Historical Approaches to Questions about American Political Parties
James Manning Strickland, Arizona State University; Ken Kollman
We examine lobbyist records from the Progressive Era to test a theory of how authority migration in federal systems affects the mobilization of interest groups.

Dynamic Political Geography
Places and Spaces: Legislators, Districts, and Political Outcomes
Nicholas Stephanopolous, Harvard Law School; Jowei Chen
This is the first paper to use the emerging method of randomized redistricting to analyze changes in American political geography over time.

Thursday 6:30 to 8 pm CDT (7:30 to 9 pm EDT) 

Early Returns: The Roles of Preconscious Feelings in Shaping Political Actions and Judgment
More Than a Feeling: Emotions and Political Action
George E. Marcus, Williams College; Erin Cikanek
Using the 2020 ANES study’s new affect battery measuring how people feel about the nation, we gain reliable measures of affective appraisals of fear, enthusiasm, and anger. We test the effectiveness of these appraisals.

Latinos for Trump in 2020: A Story of Heterogeneous Information Environments and Social Media
Race and Political Communication
Francy Luna Diaz
I propose a theory that explains Latinos’ political behavior through their information environments and social media use.

Friday, April 14, 2023

Friday, 8 to 9:30 am CDT (9 to 10:30 am EDT) 

Author Meets Critics: More Parties or No Parties, by Jack Santucci
Rob Mickey, participant.

Nascent Political Ambition and Belonging: The Importance of Group Membership in Running for Office
Candidate quality in modern elections
Ciera Hammond, Converse Miller 2022
This paper engages the literature on nascent political ambition with the literature on belonging. I develop two dimensions of group belonging in the context of running for office: belonging with community leaders, and belonging with party elites.

Paths and Hurdles to A Better Environment in China
Mary Gallagher, Chair and Discussant

Hiding Your Religion: Politics and Self-Presentation among Nonreligious Americans
Lightning Talk: Us versus Them Politics
Hilary Jordan Zedlitz
This paper examines a potential mechanism underlying the relationship between politics and religion in the U.S., arguing that political polarization and self-presentation pressures are one possible explanation for the rise in nonreligious Americans.

Friday, 9:45 to 11:15 am CDT (10:45  to 12:15 pm EDT) 

What Can We Learn from Science’s Steroid Era? A Proposal to Reinterpret Fifty Years of Statistical Significance Claims
Taking Stock of Political Methodology
Skip Lupia
Hwayong Shin, Taylor 22 Next Generation
Nicolas Idrobo, University of Pennsylvania
Rocio Titiunik, Princeton University
This paper analyzes the content of academic papers published in political science and economics in the past 50 years to suggest ways to more effectively interpret statistically significant findings in social science research.

Political Experiences of Women of Color
Sara Morell: Chair and Discussant

Is the Traffic Code Discriminatory by Intent?
Marty A. Davidson, University of Michigan
Kaneesha R. Johnson, Harvard University
Frank R. Baumgartner, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
We examine the political and social context in which the traffic code was implemented in North Carolina during the mid-1930s and find that there was an explicit intention to target the Black driving population.

Friday, 12:30 to 2 pm CDT (1:30  to 3 pm EDT)

Midwest Eurasian Political Economy Workshop: Historical Political Economy
Pauline Jones, Discussant

Friday, 1:15 to 2:45 pm CDT (2:15 to 3:45 pm EDT)

Presidential and Executive Branch Accountability, Policy Significance: Theory and Evidence
Charlotte Cavaille, Ben Guy Goehring, Kenneth Lowande, Yuki Shiraito (University of Michigan)
We present a theory and measure of policy significance, and apply it to presidential unilateral action.

Friday, 2:15 to 3:45pm CDT (3:15 to 4:45pm EDT)

Midwest Eurasian Political Economy Workshop: Markets and Politics
Pauline Jones, Chair

Friday, 3:00 to 4:30pm CDT (4:00 to 5:30pm EDT

Choosing Sides: Price for Battlefield Royalty under Authoritarianism
During-conflict considerations, dynamics, strategies and effects
Roya Talibova
Are there long-term benefits to serving in the army or supporting rebels during a civil war?

Friday, 6:30 to 8:00pm CDT (7:30 to 9:00pm EDT)

No Offense Intended: The Consequences of Outgroup Empathy for a Healthy Public Sphere
Emotion and Political Communication
Nicholas Valentino
Maya Khuzam
Outgroup empathy may reduce group conflict and increase policy compromise across ethnic and racial lines. But what if the sensitivity to offending others reduces one’s willingness to discuss sensitive or challenging topics like race in America?

The Deserving Poor? Disability Stereotypes and Support for Redistribution
Political Psychology and Policy Attitudes
Joshua Thorp, Next Generation Converse Miller 2022
Jac Larner, Cardiff University
Using three survey experiments, this paper examines whether correcting misperceptions of welfare for people with disabilities (PWD) shapes attitudes toward redistributive policy among UK citizens.

Saturday, April 15, 2023 

Saturday, 8:00 to 9:30am CDT (9:00 to 10:30am EDT)=

Expertise Acquisition in Congress
Expertise and Effectiveness in Legislatures
Christian J. Fong
Adam Rauh
Kenneth Lowande
We present and test a theory of expertise acquisition in Congress. Our analysis suggests that oversight expertise is generally not valuable outside of Congress, which implies that staffers will not acquire it without subsidies from Congress.

Measure Twice, Cut Once: Improving Measures of Attitudes
Nicholas Valentino, Discussant

Authors Meet Critics: The Other Divide
Chair: Joshua Darr
Participants: Yanna Krupnikov, Johanna Donaway, Jennifer Wolak, Anand Edward Sokhey
The authors of “The Other Divide,” Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan, gather with several experts to discuss the arguments, results, and implications of the book.

Saturday, 9:45 to 11:15am CDT (10:45am to 12:15pm EDT) 

Celebrating 20 Years Paradigms and Sand Castles by Barbara Geddes
Dan Slater, Participant

The Origins and Effects of the 2020 Antiracism Uprising
Shea Streeter, Thomas J. Hayes, Jay Ulfelder
What explains the geographic distribution of protest and counter-protest during the 2020 Antiracism Uprising? This paper uses novel data to identify the correlates of protest occurrence

By any means necessary?: the effect of protest exposure on political attitudes
Perspectives on Race and the Criminal Legal System
“Zoe Walker, Next Generation Walton 2022; Leann Marie McLaren, Duke University
This paper examines how protest tactics affect emotional responses and support for police reform.

Neighborhood Policing Presence: How 911-Call Locations Affect Officer-Initiated Surveillance and Enforcement Acts
Perspectives on Race and the Criminal Legal System
Marty A. Davidson
911 call patterns determine the trajectory of policing.

When Norms Are Not Enough: Obstruction and Rule Change in Three Historic Legislatures
Legislative Rules and Design
Mitchell Bosley
I use a speech-based measure of obstruction in legislatures to show that rule changes can either codify or disrupt existing norms of behavior. When rules codify rather than disrupt existing norms, we underestimate the effect of rules on behavior.

Polarization and Involvement in the UK
Advances in Affective Polarization
Yanna Krupnikov, John Barry Ryan, Harry Applestein, Lauren Palladino
Research suggests that measurement affects the way people reason through and report their evaluations of those with different political identities. We consider the measurement of partisan animosity through studies conducted in the United Kingdom.

Saturday, 11:30am to 1:00pm CDT (12:30 to 2:00pm EDT)

Author Meets Critics: News and Democratic Citizens in the Mobile Era
Yanna Krupnikov, Chair
The authors of “News and Democratic Citizens in the Mobile Era” gather with several experts to discuss the arguments, results, and implications of the book.

How Women’s Candidate Training Organizations Discuss and Address Racial Barriers to Running for Office
Sara Morell
How do women’s candidate training organizations (WCTOs) approach racial barriers to running for office? How do efforts to address racial barriers influence Black and white women’s perceptions of women’s organizations?

Real-time Vote Counting and Trust in Modern Elections
Causal Inference
Fabricio Vasselai (Next Gen, Pierce 22), Walter Mebane, and Patrick Y. Wu, NYU
We investigate whether winning candidates passing runners-up during the vote counting affects trust in the election process. For that, we employ Twitter data classified with DNN and a Fuzzy RDD to exploit the moment of overtaking as a discontinuity.

Prosocial Politics and COVID-19 Policy Adherence Among College Students
Undergraduate Poster: Education and Politics
Julia Kassab
We study the politicization of COVID-19 among college students, and explore how prosociality and political attitudes matter for adhering to public health measures in the United States context.

Examining Discrepancies in Wartime Sexual Violence Reporting
Lightning Talk: Human Rights and Security
Esmeralda Lopez
Datasets estimating the prevalence of wartime sexual violence indicate major discrepancies between sources’ reporting patterns. This study seeks to minimize these discrepancies to improve the documentation and study of wartime sexual violence.

Saturday, 1:15 to 2:45pm CDT (2:15 to 3:45pm EDT)

Race, Ethnicity and Public Opinion
Shayla F. Olson is a discussant

The Politics of Police Protection
Brandon J. Romero
This study investigates the effects of police numbers on political outcomes, including voting participation.

Saturday 3:00 to 4:30pm CDT (4:00 to 5:30pm EDT)  

Why Favorable Views but Limited Use of Fact-Checking? Familiarity with and Trust in Fact-Checking Sites and Conventional Media
Tackling Political Misinformation
Hwayong Shin
To explain why many Americans have favorable views on fact-checking but relatively few use fact-checking sites, this paper uses two original surveys to examine public perceptions of fact-checking sites and conventional media.

Gendered perceptions of sexual violence: A survey experiment
Sexual violence, female participation, and conflict
Ragnhild Nordaas CPS, Anne-Kathrin Kreft, University of Oslo, and Ingrid Vik Bakken, University of Duisberg-Essen
This paper presents a theory and test of gendered perceptions of sexual violence by state agents

Just Intersect and Count: How the Process of Combining Point Pattern and Areal Unit Data Generates Measurement Error
Marty A. Davidson, UM
Jason S. Byers, Duke University
We discuss several issues that commonly occur when researchers combine point pattern data with administrative boundaries. We then propose a new measurement strategy and a set of recommendations researchers can use to address these issues.

Saturday, 4:45 to 6:15pm CDT (5:45 to 7:15pm EDT)  

Body Politic: Disability and Political Cohesion
Public Health, Disability, and Political Psychology
Joshua Thorp, Converse-Miller 2022
This paper examines the political psychology of disability in the United States. I examine the factors motivating subjective identification with disability (“disability ID”), and the implications of disability ID for political attitudes.

PolBERT: A Suite of Pre-Trained Large Language Models for Political Science Research
Large Language Model for Political Texts and Concepts
Mitchell Bosley, co-author
We introduce PolBERT, a set of transformer models pre-trained on political text corpora, and show how domain-specific pre-training improves classification performance.

Author Meets Critics: Settling for Less: Why States Colonize and Why They Stop by Lachlan McNamee (Princeton University Press, 2023)
Dan Slater, Participant
This is an author-meets-critics session for Lachlan McNamee’s book Settling for Less: Why States Colonize and Why They Stop (Princeton University Press, 2023)

Sunday, April 16, 2023 

Sunday, 8:00 to 9:30am CDT (9:00 to 10:30am EDT)

 Political Participation in the Global South: Strategies for and Drivers of Engagement
Justine Davis is a discussant

Sunday, 9:45 to 11:15am CDT (10:45am to 12:15pm EDT) 

Just How Far Does Political “Unfriending” Go? The Limited Effects of Political Disagreement on Social Networks
Political Disagreement in Social Networks and Interactions
Yanna Krupnikov, Elizabeth C. Connors, University of South Carolina
We analyze why and when people are most likely to unfriend another person on social media due to politics. We show that political unfriending is relatively rare and often due to a history of unpleasant, non-political interactions on and off line.

Prosocial Issue Framing and Likelihood of Abortion Rights Activism
Lightning Talk: The Past and Future of Civil Rights
Eugenia Quintanilla
How does emphasizing who can be helped through abortion access mobilize public political action? I experimentally test the efficacy of prosocial issue framing through a national survey.

Citizen and Civil Society Relations in Post-Conflict Côte d’Ivoire
NGOs, the state and society
Justine Davis
I examine how CSO leadership qualities affect citizen-civil society organization relationships in post-conflict societies.

Racial and Gender Solidarity in Congress
Lightning Talk: American Partisanship, Elections, and Elite Behavior
Christian J. Fong, Josh McCrain, Unviersity of Utah; Catherine N. Wineinger, Western Washington University
The patterns of donations from members of Congress to copartisan candidates suggests the bonds of race and gender transcend party lines, even among politicians.