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From The Michigan Daily:

About 100 University of Michigan students and community members gathered in the Anderson Room at the Michigan Union for a talk titled “The 2024 Mexican Elections in Context” Tuesday afternoon. Hosted by the Center for Political Studies, the event featured a panel of Mexican political experts who discussed the 2024 Mexican electoral process and its implications.

The panel included Edgar Franco-Vivanco, political science professor at the University; Blanca Heredia, founding director of Talentum MX, a research lab specializing in innovative educational interventions for underprivileged youth; Itzel Soto Palma, data analyst for Data Cívica, an organization focused on research in defense of human rights and Aleister Montfort, co-founder of entropía AI, a boutique firm dedicated to leveraging artificial intelligence to transform both business practices and public sector initiatives.

On June 2, 2024, Mexican citizens will vote in the country’s largest election for more than 20,000 elected positions, including a new president, 500 members of Congress, 128 members of the Senate and thousands of local officials. The 96 million registered voters — about 75% the Mexican population — will have an opportunity to choose their representatives. 

With Mexico and the United States sharing a 2,000-mile border, close economic ties and common challenges, this election will address critical issues such as security, migration, economics and the future of democratic institutions. Franco-Vivanco began the event by stating the purpose and underscoring Mexico’s importance to the U.S. 

“(The U.S. and Mexico) are deeply interconnected,” Franco-Vivanco said. “Today, we are here because we want to bolster our understanding between our two countries in this pivotal moment. In two months, Mexico will elect a new president and new Congress, nine new governors and thousands of local officials. These are the largest elections in the history of the country.”

Heredia discussed the fairness of the upcoming elections, and said the electoral process is anticipated to proceed smoothly because of a likely substantial gap between the leading and trailing presidential candidates. Claudia Sheinbaum, running for the ruling party Morena, currently holds a substantial lead at 57.9%, surpassing Xóchitl Gálvez, who represents a political alliance formed by the National Action Party, Institutional Revolutionary Party and Party of the Democratic Revolution, by 23 percentage points.

“The electoral process is likely to deliver orderly due to institutional strength, with a probably significant margin between winner and runner up,” Heredia said. “The main asymmetry is the relative strength in contenders. Inequalities are unlikely to decisively influence results at the federal level.”

Heredia said the impact of Mexico’s 2024 elections on the U.S. hinges on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. She said another Trump administration could impact Mexican policy priorities and Trump’s attitudes toward women could potentially influence the treatment and diplomatic relations with a female president in Mexico.

“If the electoral process is orderly, there will be limited impact coming from Mexico,” Heredia said. “The main determinant is the result of the 2024 elections in the U.S. If Trump wins, it is hypothesized that the governance will likely grant more importance to governability than to democracy in Mexico.” 

Montfort said the incoming government of Mexico will face challenges in managing finances and addressing issues related to public security and public health in the country, including economic instability, rising crime rates and lack of health care access.

“The next government is going to face a harsher environment in terms of fiscal resources for next year,” Montfort said. “Not to mention all the expenditure pressure that the government has put on the finances and probably the most challenging of these issues have to do with public security and public health.” 

In an interview with The Michigan Daily, LSA senior Nicholas Granchalek, who attended the panel, said the event furthered his understanding of the potential impact of the upcoming Mexican elections.

“I think the key takeaway from this is that there is a lot riding on the Mexican election currently,” Granchalek said. “This is going to open up the potential for the next 10 or 15 years of Mexico and it’s going to start whatever the next trajectory of the evolution of the government (will be).”

Daily Staff Reporter Yu-Hsin Chen can be reached at [email protected].